A larger corrective downtrend started from 1.1085 (July’11 high) appears to be still in force for AUDUSD, which allows for a retest of the 0.9660/0.9390 support on multimonth basis. Having said that, corrective wave (B) started from Oct’11 low may be incomplete (Alt- wave (B) was completed at 1.0855) and may have one more rally toward the tough 1.0855/1.1085 resistance which is likely to cap strength in the medium term. A wave X corrective is underway from 1.0855(29 Feb high) which could test the 1.0000/0.9860 support which is critical for the medium term uptrend.
The pair attempts to recover from 1.0020 after sharp selloff with bullish divergences in hourly charts. Our intraday EW analysis suggests that the recovery could be a wave [iv] which may fail at the 1.0140/1.0220 resistance. A break below 1.0020 tests the strong 1.0000/0.9860 where medium term bulls would attempt to fight back. A reversal above 1.0245/1.0285 however dampens bears and refocuses on 1.0360/1.0475 initially. Near term shorts may be attempted on the bounce. Anantharajan .P, CMT (Technical Strategist, Precise Trader)